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Two spots open. Five teams still in the hunt. Every seed up for grabs. It adds up to an exciting final weekend for regular season baseball in the Big East Conference. Let’s break down the possibilities…and gaze into the Crystal Baseball (patent pending). This weekend’s schedule (all series three-game sets starting Thursday): South Florida at West Virginia Rutgers at Connecticut Notre Dame at Villanova Seton Hall at Louisville St. John’s at Cincinnati Georgetown at Pitt
South Florida Bulls (21-32; 10-14 Big East) at West Virginia Mountaineers (34-18; 13-11)
What’s at stake for the Bulls: Best-case scenario: South Florida, Connecticut, and St. John’s all sweep. South Florida would then finish in a three-way tie for fifth place with West Virginia and Rutgers, and it would come down to winning percentage against opponents that finished higher in the conference, since South Florida and Rutgers both would have swept WVU. Fifth place. Worst-case scenario: If South Florida is swept, one win from Georgetown, two wins from Villanova, or two wins from Pitt end the Bulls’ season. Out of Big East tournament.
What’s at stake for the Mountaineers: Best-case scenario: West Virginia sweeps; Louisville loses at least one game, Rutgers loses at least one game to Connecticut; St. John’s is swept. Third place. Worst-case scenario: South Florida and Cincinnati sweep. Eighth place.
Minnich-damus’s Prediction: South Florida is only able to take one of three from a hot WVU team, and lose the eighth spot to Georgetown, who takes two of three at Trees Field from Pitt, on the head-to-head tiebreaker, finishing in ninth place, out of Big East Tournament. The Mountaineers take advantage of Connecticut winning two out of three against Rutgers, finishing in fifth place and opening the Big East Tournament against Louisville. (shameless plug) Be sure to catch the games on u92.wvu.edu, the free streaming audio site for WVU’s student radio station. (end shameless plug)
Georgetown Hoyas (23-30; 9-15 Big East) at Pitt Panthers (20-28; 8-16 Big East)
What’s at stake for the Hoyas:
Best-case scenario: Georgetown and St. John’s sweep; South Florida does not sweep. Seventh place.
Worst-case scenario: Pitt sweeps OR Georgetown wins one game and South Florida wins one game; there are multiple elimination scenarios even if the Hoyas win two or three games against Pitt. Out of Big East tournament.
What’s at stake for the Panthers:
Best-case scenario: Pitt sweeps; South Florida loses their series; Cincinnati is swept and has a weaker winning percentage against higher-placed teams than Pitt does; Villanova wins two or less games. Seventh place.
Worst-case scenario: Georgetown wins the series; there are also multiple scenarios where Pitt would win two games or even three and still fall short. Out of Big East tournament.
Minnich-damus’s Prediction: This series is a toss-up. Neither team is playing particularly well, and both are currently on the outside looking in for the postseason. Georgetown has slightly more to play for, and so I give them the edge even though they are on the road. The Hoyas take two of three and sneak into the tournament on a tiebreaker over South Florida. Their reward? Notre Dame. The Panthers, picked second in the preseason by the coaches, are eliminated. The Pitt players are now free to work on their suntans, but it won’t be at the Big East’s expense at Clearwater.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (27-23-1; 13-11 Big East) at Connecticut Huskies (33-16-1; 15-6-1 Big East)
What’s at stake for the Scarlet Knights:
Best-case scenario: Rutgers and Cincinnati sweep; Louisville loses at least two of three. Third place.
Worst-case scenario: Connecticut and Cincinnati sweep; West Virginia wins at least one game. Seventh place.
What’s at stake for the Huskies:
Best-case scenario: Connecticut sweeps; Notre Dame loses at least one game. OR Connecticut wins two out of three; Notre Dame is swept. First place.
Worst-case scenario: Rutgers sweeps Connecticut; St. John’s wins at least two games against Cincinnati; Louisville sweeps Seton Hall. Fourth place. Minnich-damus’s
Prediction: In the best series of the weekend, the Huskies use the one of conference’s best rotations to edge the Scarlet Knights and take two games out of three. It’s not enough to catch Notre Dame, however, and the Huskies finish in second. Rutgers slides to sixth place and has to face St. John’s in the opening round in a battle of traditional Big East powerhouses.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (38-14-1; 18-5-1 Big East) at Villanova Wildcats (27-24; 8-15 Big East)
What’s at stake for the Fighting Irish:
Best-case scenario: Notre Dame wins their series OR Notre Dame wins one game and Connecticut doesn’t sweep OR Notre Dame gets swept; Connecticut loses their series; St. John’s doesn’t sweep. First place.
Worst-case scenario: Villanova and St. John’s sweep; Connecticut wins their series. Third place.
What’s at stake for the Wildcats:
Best-case scenario: Villanova and St. John’s sweep; Georgetown doesn’t sweep; West Virginia wins their series. Seventh place.
Worst-case scenario: Notre Dame wins their series; there are also many possibilities for Villanova to be eliminated if they win two of three or even if they sweep. Out of Big East Tournament.
Minnich-damus’s Prediction: After dropping two of three in embarrassing fashion to Seton Hall last week, Notre Dame rebounds with two wins in Plymouth Meeting to clinch the Big East regular season title and a meeting with Georgetown. Villanova finishes out of the Big East Tournament picture.
Seton Hall Pirates (17-31; 7-17 Big East) at Louisville Cardinals (25-28; 14-10 Big East)
What’s at stake for the Pirates: Pride. There’s no way for Seton Hall to get out into the Big East Tournament, despite an impressive series win against Notre Dame last weekend.
What’s at stake for the Cardinals:
Best-case scenario: Louisville and Rutgers sweep; St. John’s loses their series. Second place.
Worst-case scenario: Seton Hall and Cincinnati sweep; West Virginia wins at least one game; Rutgers wins their series. Seventh place.
Minnich-damus’s Prediction: A team playing for pride is always dangerous, but Seton Hall doesn’t have the guns on the road to keep up with a Louisville team that still has much still in play. A sweep is in the Cards for Louisville, but they fall percentage points short of St. John’s and finish fourth. In the Tournament, they draw a West Virginia squad that they played very evenly during the regular season despite losing two of three. Seton Hall repairs their Pirate ship and gets ready to set sail for 2007.
St. John’s Red Storm (36-15; 15-8 Big East) at Cincinnati Bearcats (30-23; 11-13 Big East)
What’s at stake for the Red Storm:
Best-case scenario: St. John’s and Villanova sweep; Connecticut loses their series. First place.
Worst-case scenario: Cincinnati, West Virginia and Rutgers all sweep; Louisville wins their series. Sixth place.
What’s at stake for the Bearcats:
Best-case scenario: Cincinnati, Connecticut, Seton Hall, and South Florida all sweep. Fourth place.
Worst-case scenario: St. John’s sweeps and two out of the four following things happen: South Florida wins their series; Georgetown sweeps; Villanova sweeps; Pitt sweeps and has a better winning percentage against the higher teams in the standings. Out of Big East tournament.
Minnich-damus’s Prediction: Both teams do what they need to go. Cincinnati gets a win to clinch a tournament berth, while St. John’s takes the other two games to cruise to a third-place finish. The Bearcats draw Connecticut in the first round, while St. John’s faces Rutgers.
Final Minnich-damus Big East standings:
Notre Dame 20 6 1
Connecticut 17 7 1
St. John’s 17 9 0
Louisville 17 10 0
West Virginia 15 12 0
Rutgers 14 13 0
Cincinnati 12 15 0
Georgetown 11 16 0
South Florida 11 16 0
Villanova 9 17 0
Pittsburgh 9 18 0
Seton Hall 7 20 0 |
West Virginia 