Virginia Tech 81, North Carolina 60 – 3:53 remaining.

As the other ACC games of last Saturday unfolded, it only provided me with more dread and angst to write this article. Duke throttled a Miami team that just the other day went to Maryland and beat the Terps on their home floor – the same home floor that Maryland later used to hand Clemson it’s first loss of the season. Now with every team seemingly able to be each other the only thing I’m sure of is that this is going to be a phenomenal year to be at the ACC tournament.

Now that I think I’ve offered enough disclaimers for this article, lets get down to business. Here’s what we know: Every team enters the conference season with the same basic goal: win your home games and split on the road. That formula leads to a 12-4 record in the league and an automatic birth in the NCAA tournament. While idealistic, that type of performance is not usually obtainable for a majority of the schools. In fact, in a league like the ACC, where everyone can (and will) beat each other, you may see only one or two schools at the 12-4 mark. This year, I’m predicting only one, and it’s probably the easiest prediction of the year. 

I still think North Carolina is going to end up winning the conference, and probably quite handily (even if they end up at 13-3). Lets not forget how young this team is and that, like most Roy Williams teams, they only get better as the season goes along. Once everyone on the team learns that the ball must always go through Hansbrough, they will be so hard to stop.

They’re good now; they’ll be positively frightening come tournament time. Do you realize this team goes 9 DEEP?! And they all average serious minutes (they have 10 players who average double digit minutes), which means they’re always fresh, they’ll always push the tempo and they will (almost always) outscore you.

***

Ok, here’s where it gets interesting. Every one of the next seven teams has at least one bad loss. At the same time, each one of those teams has some fairly nice wins. Ideally, any team expecting to be playing in March has one goal in conference play: to hold serve at home, and split on the road. That would leave a team with a 12-4 conference record a 

Bad Loss(es): None Good Win(s): None

This will be a weird thing to hear coming from a Maryland graduate, but I am rooting for Clemson this year. Oliver Parnell has been kicked around and paid his dues in this league. It be nice if he could be rewarded just this once to have a nice season in ACC play and in the NCAA tournament. The Tigers have improved every year that Parnell has been there and it looks like all the hard work that he’s poured into that program is finally starting to pay off. 

Bad Loss(es): Appalachian State, Stanford Good Win(s): Arizona, Gonzaga

I have no idea what to make out of the ‘Wahoos’. None. I remember watching Singletary and Reynolds as freshmen and just being scared senseless for having to play against them for the next three years. Singletary especially, because his freshmen year was the ACC year of the point guard, probably one of the greatest collections of floor leaders in one league in college basketball history. Think about this, in 2004 (also the last year of round robin format), Singletary played and held his own against: Raymond Felton, Jarrett Jack, Chris Duhon, Chris Paul, and John Gilchrist.

He can get into the lane whenever he wants, which can cause major foul problems for teams who don’t have a lot of depth. Against Maryland, he got the entire Terrapin frontcourt in foul trouble in the first half. Virginia will finish with a lot of wins in the conference this year, and those wins will come from their advantage at the foul line.

Bad Loss(es): at Providence, Vermont, Duquesne Good Win(s): Maryland, Michigan State

For a league riddled with inconsistency and up and down teams, the Eagles are the one constant. You know what BC is going to give you every time they step on the court: tough interior defense/offense and the ability to get burned by the 3. They don’t score below 60 or above 100. They have an All-ACC performer in Jared Dudley, and a supporting cast with players who know their roles. Couple all that with the fact that they’re already 4-0 in the conference, and its very hard to not see the Eagles finishing in the top four. 

However, the departure of Sean Williams from this team is a HUGE loss for this team. It’s like losing Chris Farley from the cast of SNL and expecting the show to remain the same. Williams was that important. He was sure to be awarded defensive player of the year in the conference, and was probably the leading candidate for the same award in the entire country. Add that to the fact that the Eagles aren’t very deep, and this is going to cost BC at least 5 wins in the ACC. Jared Dudley even said that having Williams back there is a like a security blanket for the team, and due to his presence everyone can play very aggressively on the perimeter. The thrashing they received at the hands of Clemson this past Saturday is a sign of things to come when they have to battle the upper echelon of the league.

5-7. Admittedly, I feel much more comfortable about predicting the bottom four teams than I do about the top five. I must also confess that I have NO CLUE about the next three teams. I think all three of them have a chance to finish as high as 3^rd or as low as 8^th.

Duke  (9-7)

Bad Loss(es): Virginia Tech, at Georgia Tech Good Win(s): at Gonzaga, Indiana, Air Force

It’s hard to say whose had a worse year: Greg Paulus or Jack Bauer. Paulus broke his foot came down with something along the lines of mono, broke his finger and in the process any development that he made over the past year. On the other hand Jack was kidnapped by the Chinese right after saving the world (again) and getting the girl and subsequently tortured for the next two years. Call it a push.

I will say this: The Dukies will go as far as Paulus goes. If he plays up to speed, attacks the lane, hits open shots and creates buckets for his teammates, Duke can play with anyone in the conference. The thing is, he hasn’t played up to speed yet and as a result, Duke is struggling to keep their head above water.

Here’s what we know about the Blue Devils: they can’t score. Currently, they rank dead last in points per game at 69.4. They only have two consistent double-digit scoring threats (Nelson and McRoberts) and even they aren’t very reliable. BUT, Duke plays Tenacious D (not the band) and will be in every game they play this year (except for the North Carolina games). I expect a lot of close losses for Duke before a strong year in 07-08.

Bad Loss(es): at Marshall Good Win(s): at Duke; North Carolina

Out of all the teams in the ACC I have no clue about (which is about 11), Tech is the one team that really baffles me. Right now, they’re hotter than Owen Wilson in Zoolander. They’ve knocked off Duke, North Carolina and Maryland in the past week. Cassell Coliseum is emerging as one of the better home court advantages in the ACC (on TV, it looks like its all students). They’re getting great guard play from Dowdell and Gordon and a coach of the year performance from Seth Greenberg.

Still, there’s something about this team that I just don’t trust. I feel like the Hokies are the Jacksonville Jaguars of the ACC. One minute they’ll beat Duke and North Carolina. The next they’ll lose to Miami and Wake. Right now, they look good enough to win the ACC. In two weeks though who knows?

Georgia Tech (8-8)

Bad Loss(es): at Vanderbilt, at Miami Good Win(s): at Memphis, Duke

The Yellow Jackets remind of a lot of the ’04 Maryland team that made a run at ACC title, only even younger. Do not make the mistake of underestimating this team; they have mega talent at two of the five positions (Crittenton at the 1, Young at the 2/3), and in this league that could easily be enough for eight wins.

Looking at the larger picture, has there been a school that has produced more great players at one position than Georgia Tech has turned out point guards? That school is an assembly line at the point. They’re like Miami football producing running backs or Georgetown manufacturing centers during the 80’s. Mark Price, Kenny Anderson, Travis Best, Stephon Marbury, Jarrett Jack, and now Javaris Crittenton. That’s an unbelievable list. Crittenton is the real deal. If you haven’t had a chance, WATCH THIS KID PLAY. He may be as good (and severely less noticed) than UNC super freshmen Ty Lawson. Look out for the Yellow Jackets come March.

Bad Loss(es): Miami; Notre Dame Good Win(s): at Illinois; Michigan State; Clemson

We’ve seen the bad (Miami); the Good (Clemson) and undoubtedly we will see the ugly from this Maryland team before the season is over. What appeared to be a strong sense of urgency for the Maryland group of seniors (Jones, Strawberry, Ibekwe) to try and live up the enormous expectations at the beginning of the year has now turned into a feeling of impending doom. I thought, even as they stood 1-3 in conference play, that they could turn things around and make a run, but lets be honest – that’s not going to happen. 

We’ve all tried to get pumped up about this group, and while some of us would like to tear the Terrapin team a new one with their recent performance all we have to do is look at the facts. Maryland is 1-4 in the conference. In order to get to a respectable 9-7, they have to 8-3 over the rest of their regular season games. That includes home and away games with Duke, a date with North Carolina in College Park, as well as games at Clemson, and Florida St. In other words, it ain’t happening. At least not the way Maryland has been playing.

The hard thing to swallow about that is that this Maryland team is actually very likeable. They don’t have any mega-ego’s or dropouts on the team. They have talent at every position, and they all want to learn. Gary is coaching this year and not blowing up at every player once they make a mistake. Basically, they’re the type of team you want to route for every year. It’s just unfortunate that this senior class is going out on this note.

The worst part about all of this (aside from another berth in the NIT for a once proud program) is that this team has all the pieces to compete in this league. Their scoring is up (81 ppg, 3^rd in the ACC) and they execute on the fast break better than any Maryland team in the past four years. They go through their shooting spells (no FG in the last 9 minutes of the Miami game) but they’ve improved drastically at the line (shooting 71.6% as a team; 4^th in the ACC) and each player seems to understand the definition of “shot selection” now. They have three solid rebounders/shot blockers (Gist, Ibekwe, Osby) who can play the post with any other team because they understand great help defense.

9. Florida State (7-9)

They have all the makings of one of those pesky teams that isn’t going to the postseason, but NO ONE wants to see in late February. In fact, you can pretty much bank on Al Thornton having 27 and 15 against Maryland on February 21^st. Florida State also has a history of playing all the top teams tough no matter what (see their upset win over Florida earlier this year). I’d be willing to bet one of UNC’s losses comes at the hands of the Seminoles. Their problem though, like so many other mediocre teams, is that of consistency. The next game after they upset North Carolina, they’ll lose to Wake Forest. As good as they staying in games they have no business being in, they are equally as bad in finishing games they should win.

10. Miami (5-11)

I like the job that Hurricane head coach Frank Haith has done in south beach, because I always thought it would be next to impossible to win at that school in this league. He must lose all his native talent to bigger and better schools, and on top of that, he has to keep a keen eye on all the players he does recruit, due to the vivid nightlife in Miami. I give him props for that, because you never hear any report of a Miami basketball player getting in trouble with the law or anything of that nature. Miami football on the other hand…

11. Wake Forest (5-11)

The Demon Deacons will fall on hard times this season, but they’re departure from the top will only be temporary. They had a strong recruiting class in ’06, and have two more four star recruits lined up for ’07. Nearly every program in the country goes through a rebuilding year (about once every five years) and this year is Wake’s year. Next year they’ll be in the middle of the pack. The year after, watch out.

This is what the Wolfpack get for getting rid of Herb Sendek. The guy only had probably the toughest recruiting assignment in the country (you try and convince good players in the state of North Carolina to come to your school and not to Duke, UNC, or Wake) and still led that school to numerous Sweet Sixteen appearances. He’ll have Arizona St. in the tournament within three years. I’ll be surprised if NC State gets there before then. 

The ACC Golden Globes:

First Team All-ACC

G: Sean Singletary, Jr., UVA

G/F: DeMarcus Nelson, Jr., Duke

F: Tyler Hansbrough, Soph., UNC

F: Jared Dudley, Sr., BC

F/C: Al Thornton, Sr., FSU

Second Team All-ACC

G: D.J. Strawberry, Sr., Maryland

G: J.R. Reynolds, Sr., UVA

F: Josh McRoberts, Soph., Duke

F: James Mays, Jr., Clemson

C: Sean Marshall, Sr., BC

All Freshmen Team

G: Javaris Crittenton, GT

G: Ty Lawson, UNC

F: Brandon Wright, UNC

F: Brandon Costner, NC State

Thaddeus Young, GT

All-Julius Hodge Team (Players who have been in school for at least the past seven years):

G: Engin Atsur, NC State

G: Vernon Hamilton, Clemson

G: Zabian Dowdell, VT

F: Jason Cain, UVA

C: Kyle Visser, Wake

Rookie of the Year: Brandon Wright, F, UNC

Player of the Year: Tyler Hansbrough, F, UNC

Coach of the Year: Seth Greenberg, Virginia Tech

Dick Vitale “Too Much Hype” Award: Josh McRoberts, F, Duke

Jack Bauer Award (too much awesomeness): Sean Singletary, PG, UVA

Bill Simmons Award (longest article ever): Chris DiIonno. He can be reached at .